Employment Law Crystal Ball
This week, I’m in fabulous Orlando, Florida, attending the American Staffing Association’s annual Staffing World Convention and Expo.
A huge focus of ASA’s work is staying on top of all the developments in the wonderful world of workplace law. Here’s the latest on where some key things stand:
General Forecast
The focus on the legislative front right now is pretty simple: health care, health care, health care. Virtually everything else is on the back burner.
It’s anticipated that the health care debate will take up most of the rest of this congressional session. That means that many of the initiatives favored by the Administration may be pushed off to 2010. With 2010 being an election year, the next twelve months will undoubtedly be action-packed. Whether the Administration’s initiatives make it through will depend in large part on how much political capital the President and his fellow Democrats have remaining after the health care issue is settled.
Health Care
Five proposals are now floating around — three in the House and two in the Senate. The one generating the most buzz is the Senate Finance Committee bill.
As it stands, that bill contains an “employer mandate” that would require employers who have more than 50 full-time employees and don’t provide health insurance to pay a fee for each full-time employee. The amount of the fee and what exactly constitutes a “full-time employee” (currently defined in the bill as all employees who work more than 30 hours per week on average) will undoubtedly be the subject of much debate in coming weeks.
Most experts agree that there is a better than 50% chance that some form of health care legislation will eventually be passed. However, almost no one agrees on when it will pass and what exactly it will contain.
EFCA
The Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) is still very much alive. It’s just on hold while everyone focuses on health care.
EFCA’s backers appear to have given up on the “card check” provision, but it still contains the “quickie” election and mandatory fast-track arbitration provisions that make the business community very nervous.
There’s some concern that Democrats could try to move on a compromise bill some time before the close of the session. As such, the U.S. Chamber and other business groups — all of which remain staunchly opposed to any form of compromise — are warning against apathy and overconfidence.
Immigration Reform
The President has publicly stated that he will introduce immigration reform legislation this year. Again, given the health care focus, that may not be achievable. Most experts agree that even if immigration legislation is introduced, it’s a long shot that there will be any significant action on it this year.
Paid Sick Leave
Paid sick leave is basically in the same spot as immigration reform.
NLRB
Another area that makes the employer community nervous is the power of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to reverse key Bush-era decisions. Click here for everything you could possibly want to know on that subject.
Stay tuned to see how this all plays out . . .
